Rubén M.Cenzano

Chartered Civil Engineer specialised in Transportation

Ingeniero de Caminos especialista en Transporte

semi-autonomous driving forecast

Posted On Friday, 2 December 2016



The Market Potential for Semi-Autonomous Driving (SAE), expects that semi-autonomous systems will continue to dominate the market over the next decade, with SAE level 2* and 3* systems accounting for 86% of autonomous vehicles shipping in 2026. Higher levels of autonomy will gain traction quickly, representing just under one-third of autonomous vehicles shipping in 2030.

However, recent announcements from BMW, Ford, Renault-Nissan, and Tesla signal that OEMs are not only looking to introduce higher levels of autonomy by 2021, but are also actively planning to transition from vehicle sellers to mobility providers. Both Ford and Renault-Nissan launched smart mobility divisions to build on the existing trend of OEM/rideshare partnerships and investments. The divisions also provide a platform for these brands to research and implement autonomous and connected technologies.

*SAE automated vehicle classification:
 - Level 0: Automated system has no vehicle control, but may issue warnings.
 - Level 1: Driver must be ready to take control at any time. Automated system may include features such as Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Parking Assistance with automated steering, and Lane Keeping Assistance (LKA) Type II in any combination.
 - Level 2: The driver is obliged to detect objects and events and respond if the automated system fails to respond properly. The automated system executes accelerating, braking, and steering. The automated system can deactivate immediately upon takeover by the driver.
 - Level 3: Within known, limited environments (such as freeways), the driver can safely turn their attention away from driving tasks.
 - Level 4: The automated system can control the vehicle in all but a few environments such as severe weather. The driver must enable the automated system only when it is safe to do so. When enabled, driver attention is not required.
 - Level 5: Other than setting the destination and starting the system, no human intervention is required. The automatic system can drive to any location where it is legal to drive.
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